NCRVE MDS-764 - B. SENSITIVITY OF RESULTS

Appendix

B.
SENSITIVITY OF RESULTS TO AN ALTERNATIVE SLG DEFINITION

In Section 2, we defined five school-leaving groups (SLGs) according to a sample member's work and schooling status. We designated school as the primary activity only if an individual is attending school and not working more than 35 hours per week. Once we observed four to six consecutive months (depending on the time of year) when the individual was no longer engaged in schooling as the primary activity, the individual was assigned an SLG by the highest level of schooling attained up to the point of school departure. As we noted in Section 2, an individual's returning to school meant that the SLG we assigned does not necessarily correspond to the final level of schooling attainment.

In this appendix, we replicate the results presented in the body of the report for men, using a modified definition of SLGs. Since many youth attend school while working full time, our alternative SLG definition considers school the primary activity, even when an individual is working more than 35 hours per week, provided he or she has not yet received a high school diploma or a GED. By this definition, the dropout group is restricted to those who stop attending school altogether for four to six months, without obtaining a high school diploma or GED. According to Table B.1 (which corresponds to Table 2.2), using this alternative SLG definition results in a smaller (reweighted) fraction of the sample being assigned to the dropout category (29.0 percent versus 36.9 percent) and a larger fraction being assigned to each of the remaining SLGs.

Table B.2 and Figure B.1 (corresponding to Table 2.3 and Figure 2.1) show that a smaller fraction of dropouts and high school graduates ever returned to school or returned full time under the alternative SLG definition. Consequently, over half of the individuals classified as dropouts using the alternative definition never attain a GED or diploma, while the fraction is just under 40 percent using the approach described in Section 2. Of the dropouts who return to school, the ratio of GEDs to diplomas is 4 to 1, in contrast to a nearly 1-to-1 ratio obtaining GEDs and diplomas using the original SLG definition. The patterns in return to school are little changed for the other three SLGs. The distribution of final schooling attainment is the same using the two definitions.

The individuals classified as dropouts using the alternative SLG definition are a more "select" group, consisting of those who initially leave school without a high school degree and who are less likely to ever return to school and receive a diploma.

Table B.1

Size of School-Leaving Groups for NLS-Y Men and Women

Percentage

SLG N Unweighted Weighted Reweighted

a. Men

HSDO 1032 18.5 14.4 29.0
HSG 1441 25.8 26.1 39.4
SC 839 15.0 16.2 21.1
CG 337 6.0 8.0 7.4
BA+ 130 2.3 3.0 3.1

<78 1318 23.6 24.8 ---
Missing 482 8.7 7.6 ---

Total 5579 100.0 100.0 100.0

b. Women

HSDO 798 13.7 10.2 23.0
HSG 1423 24.4 24.7 41.7
SC 1073 18.4 18.9 22.5
CG 396 6.8 8.5 9.9
BA+ 113 1.9 2.4 2.9

<78 1577 27.1 28.0 ---
Missing 447 7.7 7.3 ---

Total 5827 100.0 100.0 100.0

NOTES: Based on alternative definition of school-leaving groups as described in this appendix. Variance of sum of percentages from 100.0 percent is due to rounding errors.
<78 School leaving occurred before January 1978
(excluded from sample as missing data).
Missing Specific data problems, in order of importance: unable to distinguish high school diploma from high school equivalency certificate (GED), left school during missing interview, still in school, invalid BA date (excluded from sample as missing data).
Reweighted Weighted percentages within the observations for which we could assign an SLG among 14-15-year-olds at the first interview
(among whom "<78" is very rare).

This selectivity is evident in a comparison of the static and dynamic perspectives of the school-to-work transition for dropouts using the two definitions. Table B.3 and Figures B.2 and B.3 (corresponding to Table 3.1 and Figures 3.1 and 3.2) present the static labor force status for men in the four SLGs, by age. Although the patterns are similar for men within the three highest SLGs regardless of the SLG definition, those classified as dropouts using the alternative definition are more likely to be not working or not in school at each age, and less likely to be engaged in full-time work or in school.

Table B.2

Percentage Distribution of Completed Schooling for NLS-Y Men and Women,
by School-Leaving Groups

Total Returned
to school
(%) Final high school
degree status
(%) Final post-HS
degree status (%)

SLG N Percentage Ever Full
time Drop-
out GED Diploma BA MA+

a. Men

HSDO 1032 27.3 41.1 39.8 51.7 38.7 9.6 1.0 0.0
HSG 1441 38.1 40.0 26.4 0.0 0.0 100.0 4.9 0.2
SC 839 22.2 82.7 59.2 0.0 0.0 100.0 36.5 6.5
CG 337 8.9 60.7 21.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 14.5
BA+ 130 3.4 58.1 32.7 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 52.6

Total 3779 100.0 14.1 10.6 75.2 22.6 4.6

b. Women

HSDO 798 21.0 51.6 50.6 49.0 39.1 11.8 2.0 0.4
HSG 1423 37.4 39.8 28.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 3.9 0.4
SC 1073 28.2 78.1 57.3 0.0 0.0 100.0 31.0 4.1
CG 396 10.4 59.0 26.3 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 15.7
BA+ 113 3.0 61.4 40.7 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 42.7

Total 3803 100.0 10.3 8.2 81.5 24.0 4.3

NOTES: Based on alternative definition of school-leaving groups as described in this appendix. Percentages may not add up to 100.0 because of rounding.

The sample consists of all individuals for whom we could assign an SLG through the last interview they completed (through 1990). Full-time school is being in school and working less than 35 hours per week. Final degree attainment is based on the last available interview.

The high school dropout, GED, and diploma columns are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (everyone is either a dropout, has a GED, or has a high school diploma).

From a dynamic perspective, individuals classified as dropouts using the alternative SLG definition also fared worse in making the transition to stable employment. Table B.4 (corresponding to Table 4.1) reveals that the distribution of the number of jobs held at each age by SLG is nearly unchanged under the alternative SLG definition. However, as seen in Table B.5 and Figures B.4 through B.9 (corresponding to Table 4.4 and Figures 4.1 through 4.6), the transition to stable employment measured by job tenure occurs more slowly for high school dropouts under the alternative SLG definition. Instead of reaching the 1-, 2-, and 3-year-tenure point at ages 20, 23, and 26 under the original definition, the median dropout reached these points at ages 20, 24, and 28 under the alternative definition.

Figure B.1--Return to School and Diploma Receipt for Male High School Dropouts

Table B.3

Static Labor Force Status for Men, by School-Leaving Group and Age

Percentage

Age N Working
full time In school,
not working
full time Working part
time, not in
school Not working,
not in school

a. High school dropouts

17 284 38.0 7.7 16.2 38.1
18 589 47.7 5.3 13.5 33.5
19 818 56.9 4.2 10.6 28.3
20 878 61.4 4.4 7.4 26.8
21 879 65.2 2.9 6.6 25.3
22 868 67.7 2.9 7.9 21.5
23 853 68.4 2.9 6.4 22.3
24 833 69.2 1.9 8.2 20.7
25 815 74.3 1.1 6.2 18.4
26 740 72.3 1.0 6.9 19.9
27 549 74.8 1.0 6.2 18.1
28 353 71.7 2.8 4.6 20.9
29 180 77.6 0.3 2.4 19.6

b. High school graduates

18 416 56.8 0.9 23.7 18.6
19 1159 66.7 6.0 13.1 14.2
20 1362 70.1 6.9 11.2 11.8
21 1380 74.7 5.4 8.8 11.1
22 1366 79.1 4.3 6.8 9.9
23 1356 83.0 3.8 5.5 7.7
24 1338 84.7 2.2 6.0 7.1
25 1312 88.4 1.5 4.4 5.7
26 1215 88.1 1.2 4.2 6.4
27 967 89.0 1.8 5.6 3.6
28 725 90.1 0.9 3.6 5.4
29 471 88.9 2.8 3.0 5.3
30 236 88.5 2.1 5.1 4.3

c. Some college

19 195 69.3 8.4 12.7 9.6
20 455 64.2 18.3 10.2 7.3
21 624 64.7 22.8 4.6 7.8
22 715 63.8 24.1 7.0 5.1
23 755 67.0 17.5 7.6 7.9
24 775 77.1 10.2 5.5 7.1
25 766 80.5 9.0 6.4 4.0
26 724 83.0 7.4 5.1 4.5
27 594 84.6 5.6 4.4 5.5
28 482 88.2 4.0 4.2 3.7
29 356 86.2 4.4 4.1 5.3
30 247 85.4 4.4 3.7 6.5
31 158 85.8 5.1 2.7 6.3

d. College graduates

23 269 80.5 5.3 5.7 8.5
24 309 83.0 6.5 3.3 7.1
25 316 90.6 4.3 2.6 2.6
26 301 87.1 7.1 2.7 3.1
27 261 90.4 3.0 3.8 2.8
28 219 96.1 1.2 1.6 1.2
29 176 94.5 2.1 0.8 2.7
NOTE: Based on alternative definition of school-leaving groups as described in this appendix

The variance in the distribution is also more substantial for dropouts, using the alternative SLG definition. Under the alternative definition, the results for the other three SLGs are little changed, except that the median high school graduate entered the 3-year-tenure job at age 21 instead of age 22 according to the original definition.

Figure B.2--Percentage of Men in School-Leaving Group Neither Working Nor in School

Figure B.3--Percentage of Men in School-Leaving Group Working Part Time

Table B.4

Numberof Jobs Held by Men by School Leaving Group and Age at Mean, and 25th, 50th and 75th Percentiles of Distribution

N HSDO HSG SC CG

Age HSDO HSG SC CG Mean 25th 50th 75th Mean 25th 50th 75th Mean 25th 50th 75th Mean 25th 50th 75th

17 934 1431 833 332 0.3 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0
18 920 1421 829 332 1.0 0 1 2 0.3 0 0 1 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0
19 905 1407 826 330 2.1 1 2 3 1.4 1 1 2 0.3 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0
20 893 1397 822 328 3.1 2 3 5 2.4 1 2 3 1.0 0 1 2 0.0 0 0 0
21 885 1382 808 327 3.9 2 3 6 3.1 2 3 4 1.9 1 2 3 0.0 0 0 0
22 873 1369 801 325 4.8 3 5 7 3.8 2 3 5 2.8 1 2 4 0.4 0 0 1
23 856 1359 794 321 5.6 3 5 8 4.5 2 4 6 3.6 2 3 5 1.3 1 1 2
24 837 1338 788 319 6.3 4 6 9 5.1 3 5 7 4.4 2 4 6 1.9 1 2 3
25 819 1315 770 318 7.0 4 7 9 5.6 3 5 8 5.1 3 5 7 2.5 1 2 3
26 744 1216 727 302 7.7 5 7 10 6.1 3 5 8 5.6 3 5 8 2.8 1 2 4
27 551 967 595 261 8.3 5 8 10 6.5 3 6 9 6.2 3 5 8 3.2 1 3 4
28 354 725 482 219 8.4 5 8 10 7.0 4 6 9 6.7 4 6 9 3.5 2 3 4
29 181 471 356 177 8.8 6 9 10 7.4 4 7 10 7.0 4 6 9 3.7 2 3 5
30 -- 236 247 -- -- -- -- -- 7.5 4 7 10 7.3 4 7 10 -- -- -- --
31 -- -- 158 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7.7 4 7 10 -- -- -- --

NOTES: Based on alternative definition of school-leaving groups as described in this appendix. A value of 10 indicates 10 or more jobs.
N is the number of individuals in the sample at least through a given age. Results are shown when sample size for a given age-SLG combination exceeds 150.

Table B.5

Percentage of Men, by School-Leaving Group
and Age, Ever in a Job 1, 2, and 3 Years

Duration of Longest Job Ever Held

Age N 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years

a. High school dropouts

16 943 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 934 0.4 0.0 0.0
18 920 6.2 0.0 0.0
19 905 19.4 2.5 0.0
20 893 41.0 8.7 1.0
21 885 57.8 22.7 5.0
22 873 68.8 33.7 15.7
23 856 74.2 41.0 23.1
24 837 79.1 47.6 28.3
25 819 84.1 55.4 34.1
26 744 87.7 61.1 40.8
27 551 89.5 63.8 45.7
28 354 91.7 67.7 49.6
29 181 91.9 69.1 55.3

b. High school graduates

16 1433 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 1431 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 1421 0.2 0.0 0.0
19 1407 13.4 0.1 0.0
20 1397 50.4 7.6 0.0
21 1382 71.3 29.6 4.7
22 1369 81.3 44.7 21.0
23 1359 88.3 57.1 31.7
24 1338 92.5 67.7 42.4
25 1315 95.3 74.3 51.9
26 1216 96.5 79.8 58.5
27 967 98.4 85.8 65.1
28 725 98.7 88.2 71.4
29 471 99.1 89.8 76.7
30 236 99.3 92.3 79.7

c. Some college

16 836 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 833 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 829 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 826 0.7 0.0 0.0
20 822 9.2 0.2 0.0
21 808 26.3 5.0 0.2
22 801 42.8 16.6 4.2
23 794 58.1 28.2 11.6
24 788 70.0 39.6 20.0
25 770 81.7 49.4 30.8
26 727 89.9 61.7 38.6
27 595 94.9 71.4 50.7
28 482 97.1 76.5 59.6
29 356 99.1 82.1 64.3
30 247 99.1 87.6 70.7
31 158 99.2 88.1 77.3

d. College graduates

16 334 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 332 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 332 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 330 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 328 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 327 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 325 0.2 0.0 0.0
23 321 21.5 0.0 0.0
24 319 62.2 16.3 0.0
25 318 79.5 42.1 14.1
26 302 90.8 61.2 36.7
27 261 95.3 73.1 51.6
28 219 97.6 81.7 60.9
29 177 98.3 84.9 69.2
NOTES: Based on alternative definition of school-leaving groups as described in this appendix.
N is the number of individuals in the sample at least through a given age. Results are shown when sample size for a given age-SLG combination exceeds 150.

Figure B.4--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 1 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving

Figure B.5--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 2 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving

Figure B.6--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 3 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving

Figure B.7--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 1 or More Years, by Age

Figure B.8--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 2 or More Years, by Age

Figure B.9--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 3 or More Years, by Age

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		Percentage

Age	N	Working full time	In school, not working full time	Working part time, not in school	Not working, not in school

a. High school dropouts

17	284	38.0	7.7	16.2	38.1
18	589	47.7	5.3	13.5	33.5
19	818	56.9	4.2	10.6	28.3
20	878	61.4	4.4	7.4	26.8
21	879	65.2	2.9	6.6	25.3
22	868	67.7	2.9	7.9	21.5
23	853	68.4	2.9	6.4	22.3
24	833	69.2	1.9	8.2	20.7
25	815	74.3	1.1	6.2	18.4
26	740	72.3	1.0	6.9	19.9
27	549	74.8	1.0	6.2	18.1
28	353	71.7	2.8	4.6	20.9
29	180	77.6	0.3	2.4	19.6

b. High school graduates

18	416	56.8	0.9	23.7	18.6
19	1159	66.7	6.0	13.1	14.2
20	1362	70.1	6.9	11.2	11.8
21	1380	74.7	5.4	8.8	11.1
22	1366	79.1	4.3	6.8	9.9
23	1356	83.0	3.8	5.5	7.7
24	1338	84.7	2.2	6.0	7.1
25	1312	88.4	1.5	4.4	5.7
26	1215	88.1	1.2	4.2	6.4
27	967	89.0	1.8	5.6	3.6
28	725	90.1	0.9	3.6	5.4
29	471	88.9	2.8	3.0	5.3
30	236	88.5	2.1	5.1	4.3

c. Some college

19	195	69.3	8.4	12.7	9.6
20	455	64.2	18.3	10.2	7.3
21	624	64.7	22.8	4.6	7.8
22	715	63.8	24.1	7.0	5.1
23	755	67.0	17.5	7.6	7.9
24	775	77.1	10.2	5.5	7.1
25	766	80.5	9.0	6.4	4.0
26	724	83.0	7.4	5.1	4.5
27	594	84.6	5.6	4.4	5.5
28	482	88.2	4.0	4.2	3.7
29	356	86.2	4.4	4.1	5.3
30	247	85.4	4.4	3.7	6.5
31	158	85.8	5.1	2.7	6.3

d. College graduates

23	269	80.5	5.3	5.7	8.5
24	309	83.0	6.5	3.3	7.1
25	316	90.6	4.3	2.6	2.6
26	301	87.1	7.1	2.7	3.1
27	261	90.4	3.0	3.8	2.8
28	219	96.1	1.2	1.6	1.2
29	176	94.5	2.1	0.8	2.7
NOTE: Based on alternative definition of school-leaving groups as described in this appendix


		N				HSDO				HSG				SC				CG

Age	HSDO	HSG	SC	CG	Mean	25th	50th	75th	Mean	25th	50th	75th	Mean	25th	50th	75th	Mean	25th	50th	75th

17	934	1431	833	332	0.3	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
18	920	1421	829	332	1.0	0	1	2	0.3	0	0	1	0.0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
19	905	1407	826	330	2.1	1	2	3	1.4	1	1	2	0.3	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
20	893	1397	822	328	3.1	2	3	5	2.4	1	2	3	1.0	0	1	2	0.0	0	0	0
21	885	1382	808	327	3.9	2	3	6	3.1	2	3	4	1.9	1	2	3	0.0	0	0	0
22	873	1369	801	325	4.8	3	5	7	3.8	2	3	5	2.8	1	2	4	0.4	0	0	1
23	856	1359	794	321	5.6	3	5	8	4.5	2	4	6	3.6	2	3	5	1.3	1	1	2
24	837	1338	788	319	6.3	4	6	9	5.1	3	5	7	4.4	2	4	6	1.9	1	2	3
25	819	1315	770	318	7.0	4	7	9	5.6	3	5	8	5.1	3	5	7	2.5	1	2	3
26	744	1216	727	302	7.7	5	7	10	6.1	3	5	8	5.6	3	5	8	2.8	1	2	4
27	551	967	595	261	8.3	5	8	10	6.5	3	6	9	6.2	3	5	8	3.2	1	3	4
28	354	725	482	219	8.4	5	8	10	7.0	4	6	9	6.7	4	6	9	3.5	2	3	4
29	181	471	356	177	8.8	6	9	10	7.4	4	7	10	7.0	4	6	9	3.7	2	3	5
30	--	236	247	--	--	--	--	--	7.5	4	7	10	7.3	4	7	10	--	--	--	--
31	--	--	158	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	7.7	4	7	10	--	--	--	--
NOTES: Based on alternative definition of school-leaving groups as described in this appendix. A value of 10 indicates 10 or more jobs. N is the number of individuals in the sample at least through a given age. Results are shown when sample size for a given age-SLG combination exceeds 150.


		Duration of Longest Job Ever Held

Age	N	1 Year	2 Years	3 Years

a. High school dropouts

16	943	0.0	0.0	0.0
17	934	0.4	0.0	0.0
18	920	6.2	0.0	0.0
19	905	19.4	2.5	0.0
20	893	41.0	8.7	1.0
21	885	57.8	22.7	5.0
22	873	68.8	33.7	15.7
23	856	74.2	41.0	23.1
24	837	79.1	47.6	28.3
25	819	84.1	55.4	34.1
26	744	87.7	61.1	40.8
27	551	89.5	63.8	45.7
28	354	91.7	67.7	49.6
29	181	91.9	69.1	55.3


b. High school graduates


16	1433	0.0	0.0	0.0
17	1431	0.0	0.0	0.0
18	1421	0.2	0.0	0.0
19	1407	13.4	0.1	0.0
20	1397	50.4	7.6	0.0
21	1382	71.3	29.6	4.7
22	1369	81.3	44.7	21.0
23	1359	88.3	57.1	31.7
24	1338	92.5	67.7	42.4
25	1315	95.3	74.3	51.9
26	1216	96.5	79.8	58.5
27	967	98.4	85.8	65.1
28	725	98.7	88.2	71.4
29	471	99.1	89.8	76.7
30	236	99.3	92.3	79.7

c. Some college

16	836	0.0	0.0	0.0
17	833	0.0	0.0	0.0
18	829	0.0	0.0	0.0
19	826	0.7	0.0	0.0
20	822	9.2	0.2	0.0
21	808	26.3	5.0	0.2
22	801	42.8	16.6	4.2
23	794	58.1	28.2	11.6
24	788	70.0	39.6	20.0
25	770	81.7	49.4	30.8
26	727	89.9	61.7	38.6
27	595	94.9	71.4	50.7
28	482	97.1	76.5	59.6
29	356	99.1	82.1	64.3
30	247	99.1	87.6	70.7
31	158	99.2	88.1	77.3


d. College graduates


16	334	0.0	0.0	0.0
17	332	0.0	0.0	0.0
18	332	0.0	0.0	0.0
19	330	0.0	0.0	0.0
20	328	0.0	0.0	0.0
21	327	0.0	0.0	0.0
22	325	0.2	0.0	0.0
23	321	21.5	0.0	0.0
24	319	62.2	16.3	0.0
25	318	79.5	42.1	14.1
26	302	90.8	61.2	36.7
27	261	95.3	73.1	51.6
28	219	97.6	81.7	60.9
29	177	98.3	84.9	69.2
NOTES: Based on alternative definition of school-leaving groups as described in this appendix. N is the number of individuals in the sample at least through a given age. Results are shown when sample size for a given age-SLG combination exceeds 150.