Appendix

C.	SENSITIVITY OF RESULTS OF DYNAMIC ANALYSIS TO STRATIFICATION, BY WHETHER INDIVIDUAL RETURNED TO SCHOOL

In this appendix, we reconsider the dynamic analysis of the school-to-work transition for men, stratifying by whether the individual ever returned to school.[25] By the definition of SLG used in the body of the report (and that of Appendix B), an individual who graduates from high school and enters the labor market will be assigned to the high school graduate SLG. If he works for only 6 months and then returns to school for four years to obtain a college degree, he will not enter a 1-year job until about age 23 at the earliest. Consequently, he would be counted among the high school graduate group as one who made the transition to stable employment very slowly. Yet, most observers would consider this pattern to be a success, not a failure. By examining how the transition to stable employment for those who never returned to school differs from that for those who ever returned to school, we avoid the possibility of mixing these two patterns in the early labor market career. In general, the results presented in the body of the report are not substantially altered after we account for the effect of returning to school on the timing of the transition to stable employment.

Table C.1 (corresponding to Table B.4) presents the distribution of the number of jobs held separately for men who never returned to school (panel a) versus those who ever returned to school (panel b). Through age 26, the job distributions are very similar across the two groups. Those who never returned to school hold slightly fewer jobs, although the differences are not striking. For example, by age 26, the average high school dropout who never returned to school has accumulated about three-quarters of a job less than his counterpart who returned to school at some time (7.4 versus 8.1). The largest gap (about 1 job) is evident for those with some college; the gaps are even smaller for those in the high school graduate and college graduate SLGs.

The greater employment "stability" (i.e., fewer jobs held) for those who never return to school is further reflected in the timing of the transition to a job lasting 1, 2, or 3 years. Tables C.2 and C.3 (corresponding to Table B.5) present the results separately for men who never returned to school and for those who ever returned to school, respectively. The timing of the transition is presented graphically in Figures C.1 through C.6 (corresponding to Figures B.4 through B.9), where figures a and b plot the results for those who never returned to school and those who ever returned to school, respectively.

Not surprisingly, measured by time since school leaving (Figures C.1 through C.3), those who never returned to school reach the 1-, 2-, and 3-year-tenure points slightly faster than their counterparts who returned to school, although there is some evidence that those who returned to school eventually (within 10 or more years since the time of original school leaving) overtake their peers who never went back to school. Of the four SLGs, the difference is most striking for those with some college.

When age is the point of reference (Figures C.4 through C.6 and Table C.2), dropouts, high school graduates, and college graduates show very similar trajectories regardless of whether they returned to school. Among dropouts, those who never returned to school reach the 1-year-tenure point slightly faster than those who ever returned to school, whereas the differences for the 2-year and 3-year job are very small. In fact, for all three tenure points, the median dropout enters the job at the same age regardless of whether he returned to school. The differences for high school graduates and college graduates are equally small. There is some evidence in Figures C.4 through C.6 that the time until nearly all in the college graduate SLG reach the 1-year-tenure point occurs more rapidly for those who never returned to school, although this is to be expected. The data become almost too sparse, however, to draw firm conclusions.

The some college SLG stands out, with the sharpest contrast between the timing to stable employment by whether the individual returns to school, although the differences are still modest. For those who attended college but left without obtaining a degree and never returned, the transition to stable employment occurred somewhat more quickly. The median male who never returned to school entered the 1-, 2-, and 3-year-tenure jobs at ages 20, 21, and 23, respectively. These points are not reached by the median male who returned to school until one to two years later (ages 21, 23, and 24, respectively). Those who returned to school eventually caught up: By the late twenties, a similar fraction has reached the 1-, 2-, and 3-year-tenure points.

Figure C.1a--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 1 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving--Never Returned

Figure C.1b--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 1 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving--Ever Returned

Figure C.2a--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 2 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving--Never Returned

Figure C.2b--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 2 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving--Ever Returned

Figure C.3a--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 3 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving--Never Returned

Figure C.3b--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 3 or More Years, by Years Since School Leaving--Ever Returned

Figure C.4a--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 1 or More Years, by Age--Never Returned

Figure C.4b--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 1 or More Years, by Age--Ever Returned

Figure C.5a--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 2 or More Years, by Age--Never Returned

Figure C.5b--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 2 or More Years, by Age--Ever Returned

Figure C.6a--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 3 or More Years, by Age--Never Returned

Figure C.6b--Percentage of Men Ever in a Job 3 or More Years, by Age--Ever Returned

[25] The SLG definition used in this appendix is the same as that defined in Appendix B.